Dear all,
I am really wondering how registering to vote while outside of Sudan which lifts up the total percentage of the Southerners while there are no guarantees of actually going to Sudan help voting for secession?
We know that voting for secession will require 60% to be succeeded. If we lift up the total percentage by registering and we don't go, those registrations/votes will be counted lose. For example, if people of the South are 10 million, then the required 60% to win the secession will be 6 million. But if we "people from outside" lift up the total of the Southerners to make them "for example" 15 millions, then the required 60% to win the secession will be 9 millions. If those who registered did go to Sudan to vote, "let us say 3 millions did not go and only 2 millions went", then the calculation will be very hard for the South to get 9 millions out of only 12 millions. Because the total of Southerners in the South will be 10+2 millions.
On the other hand, if we do not register and keep the total of Southerners be only 10 millions "estimated number" then we keep the required number to win the secession only 6 millions. If those who are able to go have actually made it to Sudan, then their number will be still added to vote and we may easily bit the required 6 millions out of 12 millions.
Unless there are somethings I did not know, registering is not good for us.
Giir
Plan "B" Abyei Referendum
Dear all,
Based on the article bellow, I want to propose an internal Southern (SPLM) "Plan B" for Abyei situation
The postponement may be a good idea to secure and block more coming of Masseria to Abyei and use the time to actually redeploy/relocate more of Southern IDPs in Abyei area. There are natural, economical, social, health and political situations that can be use as reasons why we should relocate some tribes and IDPs in Abyei. Once we add more 100s of thousands into Abyei, we'd actually secured three major front of battling Abyei out of the North.
1- We can compete in fare elections if Masseria continued their occupancy.
2- We can indirectly promote more of the World's Society's attention to why they should increase their peace keeping efforts and find ways of solution.
3- Indirectly increase possibilities of Southern armed civilians in the area.
That is my humble opinion..
Giir Biar
Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/201011010928.html
Postponement of Abyei Referendum is Undesirable But May Be Unavoidable' - RVI
Juba — A report by a respected research organisation says that January's referendum in Sudan's oil-rich border region of Abyei may have to be postponed until April due to severe delays to preparations.
Abyei's referendum will determine whether the region remains as part of the north or joins what could be a newly-independent south. As part of a 2005 peace deal that ended 22 years of civil war the south is due to hold a simultaneous self determination vote.
With less than 70 days to go until voting is due to begin the Rift Valley Institute (RVI) report concludes that 'brinkmanship, delay and broken agreements - old traditions of Sudanese politics - threaten to turn the political and technical challenges of the referenda into a national disaster.'
Last week the head of the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission conducting the referendum process during the remaining short period will be a complete miracle.
The parties to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Sudan's ruling National Congress Party and the former southern rebels the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) have failed to implement the majority of the deal on time.
Senior NCP politicians have suggested that Abyei's vote be delayed in order to resolve north-south boundary demarcation, the appointment of members of the referendum commission, the question of voter eligibility and residency and issues of public security.
For these reasons 'postponement of the Abyei referendum is undesirable but may be unavoidable' the report said.
If the members of the commission to run the vote (who were due to be named in January this year) are not named within the next two weeks 'it will not be practicable to hold the Abyei referendum on time' the report says.
Talks to resolve the Abyei issue have remain deadlocked.
The NCP has insisted that the Misseriya tribe, who enter Abyei with their cattle for a few months each year be given full voting rights. But the SPLM have refused, saying only permanent residents - the vast majority of whom are Dinka Ngok a tribe alligned with the south - are able to vote.
Consequently no timetable for voter registration in Abyei has been agreed.
As things stand the report says that Abyei's poll is so far behind schedule that the legal requirements of the poll may not be met.
The report's author Aly Verjee argues that the best way to avoid the Abyei and southern referenda becoming a 'national disaster' triggering a third north-south civil war is a 'political fix' in the form a new deal or 'Comprehensive Peace Agreement II'.
As well outstanding issues regarding the process of the referenda, any new deal should also agree on post-referenda issues, such as citizenship and sharing of oil revenues from the south's oil fields.
The new deal should see both sides 'recommit' to the referendum process and restate that they will the result but also agree on a 'possible date for a postponed Abyei referendum'.
Despite suggestion that the Abyei referendum may have to be postponed by around three months the delaying of the southern vote would not solve any of the existing problems, the report says.
"Even with an agreement between the parties to modify the provisions of the referenda laws, there is barely time for registration: for procedural decisions to be taken and acted on and for registration itself to take place. All these stages could also be subject to dispute between the parties," it says.
International Recognition
The SPLM, who have governed the south since the CPA in 2005, have suggested that the south could hold it's own referendum independently of the NCP in the event that the two sides are unable to reach agreement on key issues, which may prevent the referenda going ahead on time.
But the RVI report rejects the idea arguing that any process that does not involve the full participation of Sudan's ruling party would render the exercise entirely meaningless.
A unilateral referendum, would not only contravene some articles of the CPA, the report says, the other consequence is that 'under these conditions would be unlikely to gain full international recognition or promote national consensus.'
April' Elections
Meanwhile for the referenda to have credulity, the report notes, they will have to held to a higher standard than this year's April elections.
Describing the referenda as "unique and unrepeatable events," the report urges the referenda commission to establish a higher standard than that achieved by the electoral commission in the 2010 elections, through adequate staff training and effective administration.
RVI is a non-profit research and training organisation operating in Sudan, the Horn of Africa, East Africa and the Great Lakes, with projects designed to inform aid interventions, support local research capacity, record indigenous culture and promote human rights
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